Graduate Seminar: Leadership and Responsibility - Spring 2013 - Doctor NWO

Quarterly Quiz:

“Runaway Global Warming ”

Section 1 – The Event of Runaway Global Warming – Multiple Guess / True  or False / Fill-In-The-Blanks

1) Runaway global warming can occur when the albedo of a planet decreases to a certain level. Albedo is

1. Reflectivity
2. A term used by kooks to scare us
3. Scientific jargon used for the purpose of securing funding
4. Global dimming

2) Albedo is associated with white clouds and snow cover.     T or F

3) Aerosols will

1. Increase albedo with little or no negatives
2. Increase albedo with a minor increase in respiratory problems
3. Increase albedo and enhance the randomness of anthropogenic forcing of the radiative balance making the problem far worse
4. Are a feel a good response to a problem we are unwilling to cope with.

4) Aerosols are routinely released into the atmosphere to increase reflectivity. While this stopgap mechanism has no long-term positive effects, the deployment of aerosols will buy time by slowing down the advent of runaway global warming.     T or F

5) Runaway global warming is the same as global warming.     T or F

6) Runaway global warming is fostered by the large-scale release of the more potent GHGs like methane. This is worrisome because large-scale deposits of methane exist in

1. The methane hydrates of the tundra
2. The methane hydrates off the continental shelves.
3. Farm animal flatulence
4. Fracking activities
5. All of the above

7) At least two events mentioned in question six are accelerating. This will facilitate runaway global warming. Theses events are

1. The accelerating release of methane hydrates in the tundra
2. The release of methane hydrates off the continental shelves.
3. Farm animal flatulence
4. Under-regulated fracking activities
5. All of the above

8) Loss of albedo from melting glaciers worldwide and large-scale release of methane will each enhance the consequence of the other. This is called a

1. Positive feedback loop
2. Negative feedback loop
3. Environmental myth
4. Scientific certainty
5. Choices one and four

9)     Identify this image:

 

1. This is a clathrate molecule
2. This is a web site decoration
3. This is a methane hydrate molecule
4. Molecules in large deposits, currently residing in the oceans and the tundra
5. All of the above

10) Early work on anthropogenic forcing of the radiative balance centered on positive and negative feedback loops. For example, if the planet warms there will be more water vapor in the atmosphere. Therefore, there could be more clouds adding to the albedo of the planet and perhaps a mitigating effect of the forcing. This would be considered a negative feedback loop for runaway global warming. Of the feedback loops studied from 1980 to 2000, what percentage of them turned out to be either neutral or positive feedback loops–ones that add to the enhanced forcing of the radiative balance of our planet by humans–and therefore facilitate runaway global warming?

1. 100%
2. 95%
3. 90%
4. 85%

10) What does the term “runaway global warming” mean?

1. Does it mean global warming runs away from a strong economy and never returns?
2. Does it mean global warming will continue, no matter what we do, and we must learn to cope with it?
3. Does it mean global warming will continue unless we geo-engineer the planet?
4. Does it mean global warming is the same thing as runaway global warming?
5. None of the above

11) The tipping point and runaway global warming are connected in what way?

1. The tipping point and runaway global warming are both myths
2. The tipping point and runaway global warming will not impact markets
3. Runaway global warming means the tipping point
4. Runaway global warming and the tipping point are not the same, but the tipping point is an early stage event signaling the increased potential for runaway global warming

12) Policy mistakes can be hidden by which of the following means?

1. Corrupt media
2. Weak politicians
3. Minor advances in R&D with no practical use
4. Extensive use of  PR
5. All of the above

Section 2: Leadership and Runaway Global Warming

At some time in the near future, the excess energy the planet retains from the sun, due to excess carbon dioxide generation, will push our climate systems passed the capability of terrestrial systems to control our planet and Earth will become like Venus destroying life on this planet, as we know it.

Below, read the suggested solutions to runaway global warming. Pick the one you believe is the course of action being followed by our leadership and mark it with a check. Circle the courses of action you would support, and put your initials along side them.

1.  We do not know how to stop runaway global warming. And even though it leads to extinction, it is worth the economic gamble to keep our economy strong. Note: Economics do not function well for an extinct society.

2.  Ignore truth while remembering the adage that proclaims, “He, or she, that dies with the most toys wins.”

3.  Determine when we will approach that point when our systems will push terrestrial systems passed their point of controlling our GHG output. Then evaluate the data. Note: Some say the aforementioned critical juncture is impossible to predict, with any accuracy, due to the phase changes that are already taking place and the inability of models to predict the climate-future.

4.  Make a plan to migrate away from anthropogenic forcing of the radiative balance in time to keep our planet viable and mitigate runaway global warming. Note: This requires an understanding of when we will push terrestrial systems beyond their recovery point (See 3 Note to self–no puns).

5.  Immediately invoke a usable worldwide system to remove GHGs from the atmosphere, or render them unimportant. Geo-engineering solutions fit in this group. Note: Recall that carbon dioxide remains in the atmosphere for over fifty years and its density in the atmosphere is such that carbon dioxide removal remains impractical.

6.  There is a grander plan, one to escape the planet Earth–after we cook it; so we can all live happily ever after. Note: It is hard to consider there would be enough resources to send a few billion people into space and rebuild civilization.

7.  There might be enough resources to save tens of millions of people (fifty million or so) by either lifting them off the planet, or sequestering civilization below ground. Note: This is currently considered an unworkable idea because the result is five billion or so dead people.

8.  There is no viable way to predict, with certainty, when runaway global warming will occur. Nor is there a system to halt the production of GHGs in a carbon-based economy. Therefore, we immediately adopt a stance that the production of GHGs is a clear and present danger to our society, our nation, and to our lives (even though this track will wreck the remains of the fossil fuel economy). Note: Had we begun this transition twenty years ago–when the trend was clear–the event would have been far less disastrous for our nation.

Section 3: Your Suggestions – Extra Credit – Essay:

1) How you would deal with runaway global warming? Make sure to delineate an understanding of the difference between R&D (research and development), large-scale deployment of new technologies and their support systems, as well as technology that either develops too late to fix a problem–or is inadequate to the problem scale. Finally, delineate the mortality rate considered acceptable in your fix.