The State of the Climate

Repeated damage in the Northeast is a glimpse of the often-predicted climate shift–the consequence of energy systems and affiliated processes emitting excess GHGs like carbon dioxide. Focusing on the Northeast portion of the United States, one event continues to reappear as the progenitor of that damage: Storms feeding other storms.

In the past, smaller weather systems had a tendency to move through the area so fast the additive effect of storms had been minimal in size, in event, and in frequency. That has changed. In the last decade, we have seen a trend to storms delivering an additive punch resulting in a highly destructive end product.

Events in the Northeast, the drought in the Midwest, sea level rise along the coasts, mounting infrastructure damage, and economic stagnation are the early snapshots of how climate change looks to us. Understanding the decadal-scale changes, understanding seasonal regional trends and the day-to-day weather events is paramount for determining the new face of civilization. This is just the beginning of the process.

As transformation in the climate regime continues to unfold, research into events in the Northeast–and elsewhere–has the potential to yield valuable trend data on the near-term phases. These are The Good Old Days of climate change. Understanding where we are going is imperative. Technology helps us here–unless it becomes a diva, a liability. Keep It Simple Stupid; technology has never been a substitute for expertise. Retaining expertise, therefore protecting the population, is imperative.

As of today, the time we use to repair our complex technological infrastructure defines our resilience. Hoping we can ride out the energizing climate with complex technological systems, a diminished population, and gobs of money limits our resilience. Accepting and embracing all of our paths, including technology and population, enhances our resilience.

Drought, famine, disease, floods, storms, firestorms, and mass migration all stare at the leadership, daring them to ignore the further realities of an energized climate. Adept at such action, leadership so far claims dominance by the divine-right-of-commerce. So society’s response puddles out, muddled, ineffective, and mired in last century’s economic myths. The days of “No-Regrets” are over. Swamped in regret, as our ineffectual responses lay bare, falsehoods and propaganda, the enemies of civilization, wait for the closing moments of each disaster to adjust the popular viewpoint declaring negligence the course of our generation.

Rejecting that course, science seeks to filter media noise from event and disseminate information to people and organizations. It is not fear mongering, calling the population to attention on the problems of a changing climate, so those with integrity can reverse the affects of anthropogenic forcing of the radiative balance. Courage and fortitude take transparency and honesty. Clarity requires scientific reasoning–not political legend. Knowing the ordeal we are facing is effective strategy.

So it is rational to ask the leadership when they will peek through the blur of domination into the planet around them. When will private interests give way to the needs of the nation and her people? When will the wrath of dubious supply chain mythologies enlighten the eyes of our corporate citizens? When will government drop political party rhetoric and get to work?

We have already seen a propensity, in certain regions, for damaging weather events. In the Northeast, slower moving more energized systems enhance each other. This development will replicate throughout the planet. Alterations continue to accelerate in larger scale weather events like ENSO, the AO, and NAO. Our steady state climate (on the human scale) withers away as these large-scale buffers weaken. These systems affect each other. So while huge buffers like these–as well as the oceans–protect us to some extent. They also obscure change. Sadly, we do not know how long this current climate phase will last, how many phases there will be in the current cycle, or what the final state of our climate looks like after settlement of the sequence. Intense study of the buffer degradation process may yield insight into the next phase. One item is certain: The state of the climate will evolve in a way foreign to human experience. To think events will not disrupt biological, economic, and sociological ecosystems is foolish. When the buffering capability of the aforesaid large-scale weather systems is saturated, the (cascading) processes might deliver clarity. Events of note will certainly be more pervasive. The results may be devastating; however, waiting for that as proof of climate change is Dodo-Bird-Logic. It would be a misuse of time and energy. The media bombardment of bread and circuses wrapped in commercial pap, delivered as news, is as lethal as bullets to our children and us.

We expel too much carbon dioxide, a GHG (Green House Gas), into the atmosphere. This is the root cause of our problem. Many claim GHGs are the byproduct of effective energy systems and we need these energy systems to keep civilization running–a well-oiled machine resilient to the changing climate. This is a myth, a menu for defeat. Adjustment leads to prosperity; holding onto last century’s economic folklore leads to ruin. The climate systems dwarf our economics and our civilization. Economics are a reed in the storm, not the wind.

We will eventually face the challenge of our time with courage and fortitude–because we have no choice. We will eventually reduce our GHG output. Either because we have recognized the destructive trend and its outcome, or because our systems get so battered, we can no longer emit the species-toxin in lethal doses. The choice is ours–for the time being. How long it remains our choice depends on the accelerating vigor of the climate phases and our response to those changes as a nation, as a world community, as a family.

The state of the climate is this: We have entered a new phase. In reply, we must foster lucidity about this early stage of the planetary process so we might effectively cope with future alterations. If we do not recognize the truth of this early, relatively benign beginning, we risk any substantial adjustment to the changing planet by our contemporary version of civilization.

At which point we start again. If we are lucky, but don’t count on it.